Mastering Hand Ranging: How to Analyze Opponent Ranges for Maximum Profit

In reality, it was more of an educated guess at best, and a lucky one most of the time. The myth was fed by unscrupulous producers who had the ability to edit out all the wrong guesses while keeping in all the correct ones, exercising that ability to feed the myth machine. However, what is unquestionable is that pros have the ability to narrow opponent ranges and hone that ability to maximize their profits.

What is Hand Ranging?

So what exactly is hand ranging? It is the process of assigning a range of possible hands to an opponent based on their actions throughout a hand. This is important because it helps you narrow down the possibilities of what hands your opponent might have, enabling you to make more informed decisions. Let’s look at a concrete example: you’re playing against an opponent on whom you have these specific reads:

• They like to slow play and trap monsters.
• They bluff far too often.

If this player bets on the river and you have a weak hand that only beats a bluff, you have a pretty trivial call. Since you can rule out monsters (as you’d expect them to trap check those) and you know they bluff too often, you can call safely knowing they will have a bluff more often than a value hand. Note that you’re not putting them on a specific hand or even a specific type of hand (bluff or value), but the very fact that we’ve identified an imbalance in their strategy is enough. Poker and poker players are inherently unpredictable, so trying to put all our opponents on a single hand will always be a fool’s errand.

Preflop Ranging

When I started playing seventeen years ago, there was no general agreement on what hands should be opened at different stack depths from different positions. Nowadays, in the era of GTO and solvers, this part of the game is solved, not just for GTO. If we know the extent to which our opponents are diverging from GTO, we can use the solvers to identify exact ranges to exploit them.

One effect of this, particularly online, is that players who diverge egregiously are quickly pounced on and weeded out of the player pool. Therefore, if you are playing against an unknown opponent, it’s a reasonable baseline assumption to assign them the GTO range until you get evidence to the contrary.

Understanding Preflop Showdowns and Frequencies

It is particularly important to watch showdowns and then ask yourself if all the hands shown down were GTO-approved preflop. What you are looking for here are clear breaches: if someone opens or calls with a hand that is in the GTO range, that provides you with zero information (though after several such occurrences, it makes it more likely they are indeed playing GTO ranges).

On the other hand, if they open or call a hand that is not in the GTO range, that is very useful information—not just for this exact spot but for all others. You are not just answering the question, “Is this hand in the GTO range?” but also, if the answer is no, “How far outside the range is it?”

If you see a player show up with Ace-Six in a spot where they should be folding Ace-Ten, this tells you not just that they are far too wide in this particular spot but also more than likely far too wide in all preflop spots.

How to Spot Deviations From GTO

While showdowns provide the most useful and accurate information on opponent ranges, they’re not the only ones. Other indicators include:

Frequencies

If someone is doing something way more often than expected—be it calling, raising, folding, or three-betting—it’s reasonable to assume they are unbalanced even before you see a showdown to confirm. Purists will yell “sample size” and suggest that you cannot draw any conclusions from small samples, but I disagree. While I accept that the bigger the sample size, the more reliable the conclusions we can draw, if we sit around waiting for statistical near certainty, we’ll be waiting a long time—too long to ever get any real information. Poker, by its very nature, is a probabilistic game of incomplete information, and we should embrace this in all aspects of the game.

Degree of Deviation

It’s also worth noting that the degree of deviation itself tells us something. To illustrate this, let’s say you join a game and the only information you have is that one player is a nit who only plays 5% of hands, and another is a maniac who plays 80%. You aren’t told who they are, but in the first orbit, you see one player play every hand and the other fold every hand.

A statistician might tell you the player who folds every hand could still be the maniac (and he’d be right, since the maniac folds one hand in every five long-term). Similarly, the player who opened every hand could be the nit—it’s just possible he was dealt ten top 5% hands in a row. Both are possible, but extremely unlikely. So it’s not unreasonable to start assuming, even after this small sample, that the maniac is the one who opened every hand and the nit is the one who folded.

Default Preflop Ranges

These days, most players play close to GTO ranges, particularly at higher stakes online. Back when I started, it was very different: we had names for different “styles.” Tight aggressive’s (TAGs) played much tighter than optimal ranges, while loose aggressive’s (LAGs) were much wider, as the name implies. At higher stakes, you now see a much narrower spread, particularly among pros.

The tightest players will be just a bit tighter than normal, shaving off the worst hands in their opening and three-betting ranges (arguing they’re not making much anyway), while the loosest will typically open a bit wider than optimal, arguing that their perceived post-flop skill edge allows them to claw back any lost EV preflop.

Preflop in Live vs Online Games

At lower stakes and live games, you will still see a wide spread among unstudied recreationals. Additionally, weaker recreational players are often positionally unaware. Whereas a studied player will know they should generally have a much tighter range in early position than on the button, unstudied players have a “hands I play” list in their head, so their ranges are the same in every seat.

Bear that in mind when you see a player who possibly fits that profile open too wide in early position. You can’t necessarily assume they’ll open even wider in later positions—they might be opening approximately the same range from every seat. Additionally, there is far more randomness with these types of players, and factors such as tilt, recent hands won or lost, and how they feel in the moment all factor into their ranges.

Postflop Ranging: Flop Analysis

The flop is generally the first point in the hand where the actions will significantly tighten the ranges of one or both players, depending on what actions they take. Let’s look at some specific examples. In all of these examples, the button has raised, the big blind defends, and the effective stack is 40 big blinds.

A♠ 8♣ 2♥ Flop Example

It should be obvious to both players that this flop heavily favors the button. They can have all the sets and all the strong top pairs (AK, AQ, etc.) that the big blind can’t have (as they would three-bet those hands preflop). Of course, the big blind still has some strong hands in their range like two pair, but overall their range is so weak that they have to check, irrespective of their hand.

Conversely, this is such a good flop for the button that they should continuation bet using a small bet size, irrespective of their actual hand. Note that if both players are playing optimally, no information can be gleaned from their actions so far. The big blind checked, and the button bet, but both should be taking those actions with all their hands. The hand essentially starts after the button continuation bets and the action is back on the big blind. They should now raise with a range balanced between their strongest value hands (hands strong enough to raise and be ahead of most of the hands the button calls with) and well-chosen bluffs.

At this point, the button should narrow the big blind’s range to those hands and respond accordingly. They should raise very strong hands that will usually be ahead when called for value, call hands that are going to win often enough to make calling profitable, and fold most weaker hands (but raise some as a bluff).

J♠ T♠ 2♥ Flop Example

This is a very different flop. While it still favors the button, who has more strong hands (sets and overpairs) and usually the best hand, their advantage is not as clear-cut as in the previous example. Additionally, this is a dynamic board, which means that unlike the previous example (which is a static board), there are a lot of turn cards that could change who has the best hand.

Because of this, the button should use a slightly bigger-sized continuation bet if they decide to bet, but they shouldn’t necessarily bet all the time. Hands like sixes through nines don’t have a strong reason to bet here: no better hand will call, and weaker hands will mostly fold.

6♠ 5♣ 4♥ Flop Example

Unlike the previous examples, this is a very good flop for the big blind. They have lots of suited connectors that connect with this board, making straights, two pairs, and pairs with an open-ended straight draw. Additionally, this is a very dynamic board on which the big blind makes a vulnerable top pair more often. For all these reasons, the big blind should actually lead (donk bet) this flop, as their value hands don’t want to give the button the opportunity to check behind, and they have lots of good bluffs.

Turn Ranging: Using New Information on the Turn

The flop actions taken by both players narrow their ranges. On the turn, three types of cards can appear:

• Cards that favor the out-of-position player.
• Cards that favor the in-position player.
• Cards that favor neither player.

Let’s return to a previous example.

J♠ T♠ 2♥

On the flop, the big blind checks, the button bets one-third of the pot, and the big blind calls. Now consider these three turn cards and ask yourself who they favor:

• 2♠
• A♣
• 6♥

2♠

The 2♠ favors the big blind as they have more 2x hands, turning trips or a full house, and it completes more flushes. While both players can have a flush, the big blind likely holds more spade-suited hands, making this card significantly stronger for them. They should lead with many hands, balancing value bets and bluffs.

If they check, it often signals a good but not great hand, allowing the button to recognize this and potentially bet. Leading, especially with larger bets, signals strength and a likely value hand, while smaller bets might still suggest strength but with less certainty.

A♣

The A♣ clearly favors the button. It doesn’t complete flushes (and remember, the big blind has more flush draws than the button), but it does complete a straight for KQ, which the button is more likely to have. It also promotes AA to a set, AJ (which only the button can have) and AT (which the big blind can have but less often than the button) to two pair, and all other Ax to top pair (which again both players can have, but the button has more often).

Because this is such a good turn card for the button, the big blind should always check (even when they have improved to two pair). The button shouldn’t necessarily bet every hand, but they should mostly bet. They can bet their strongest Jx and better for value (and protection), balanced with bluffs, but most of their Tx and weaker Jx has little incentive to bet now and mostly wants just to see a cheap showdown.

6♥

The 6♥ is unlikely to have improved either player. It completes no draws. Because of this, if the big blind checks, the button should go ahead and bet really big (close to pot or even better) with their very strong hands, going for maximum value, and some well-chosen bluffs (in the hope that the big blind will fold), and check their medium-strength hands, hoping to win at showdown.

Evaluating River Ranges

Analyzing River Scenarios

By the river, our opponent’s range has been significantly reduced, allowing for more precise decision-making. Let’s look at some specific examples.

J♠ T♠ 2♥

We are the big blind. We check-call the flop, and then the turn goes check-check. After our opponent checks behind on the turn, we can conclude they mostly have a good but not great hand they are trying to get to showdown. So what should we do on these river cards?

2♠

The 2♠ clearly favors us as the big blind. If we’ve improved to a flush, trips, or top pair, we should make a big bet and hope our opponent calls with a good but worse hand. It might surprise you, but we can bet big with a jack here. Remember, your opponent would mostly have bet the turn if they had you beat at that point, and the 2 almost never improves their hand. If we have second pair, we can bet smaller, hoping to get called by a weaker made hand.

A♣

The A♣ clearly favors the button. You might think that this means we should always check as the big blind, but you’d be wrong. The river is the one street where we really don’t want our opponent to check behind when we have the best hand, so we should still go ahead and bet most of our strong hands. If we have top pair or better, we can go for a biggish sizing of roughly half the pot. If we have a jack, we should bet smaller, say, one-third of the pot.

This bet can get value from worse hands (like Tx and pocket pairs) and prevent our opponent from betting big, either with the ace or as a bluff, if we checked. We can even go ahead and bet third pair (Tx) for a tiny size of 10% pot. This is a relatively new play that solvers have taught us. Its function is the same as a third-pot bet with a jack: it can get called by worse pairs and prevent our opponent from betting a bigger size, either for value or as a bluff.

Tools and Techniques for Practicing Ranging

Utilizing Poker Solvers and GTO Tools

Solvers like Lucid GTO, GTOWizard, and RangeTrainerPro can be used to simulate various hand scenarios and improve your ranging skills. Play out scenarios like the ones used as examples in this article and watch how the ranges change after each action. Practice identifying whose range is favored by the flop, turn, and river and how it affects both players’ strategies. Tools like the trainer in GTOWizard and DTO allow repeated practice using drills and scenarios to hone accuracy.

Reviewing Hand Histories

Review your own hand histories to spot mistakes in ranging. If an opponent shows up with a hand you didn’t expect, ask yourself if you should have expected it. When you play live, follow every hand, including the ones you are not in, and practice trying to assign ranges at every point to everyone in the hand.

Conclusion

These are general guidelines for how to tackle ranging opponents and how ranges dictate strategy. For a more detailed look at how to range players in theory, I recommend the book GTO Poker Simplified by someone called Dara O’Kearney and Barry Carter. For how different ranges can be in practice against real-life opponents and how to exploit those differences, I recommend the book Beyond GTO: Poker Exploits Simplified by the same duo.