Poker Odds

Written by: Jordan Conroy Fact checked by: Dara O'Kearney January 31, 2023 6 min read Affiliate Disclaimer

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This guide covers the key concepts, from calculating outs to understanding pot odds, so you can make informed moves and maximize your chances of winning.

Cards being displayed on a poker table with poker chips stacked.

Poker odds are a fundamental concept that every poker player needs to understand to elevate their game and become successful. Knowing the odds of hitting certain hands, making draws, and calculating pot odds can help players make better decisions and improve their chances of winning.

Learning the Odds

WHAT ARE POKER ODDS?

The term “poker odds” covers several aspects of poker math. One aspect is understanding the number of “outs” your hand has, particularly when drawing, and how you can determine the likelihood of the cards you need being dealt.

For example, you have two diamonds in your hand and two diamonds on the flop. Your odds here for making a flush are around 2 to 1, which means you can expect to hit a flush approximately every three hands. This information can help you make your move and potentially give you an advantage over other players.

POKER PROBABILITY

Poker probability helps you estimate the chances of seeing certain cards on the flop, turn, or river. In general, each card has about a 2% chance of appearing on any given street, making it easier to estimate your odds for a specific card or draw without extensive calculations.

How to Calculate Your Poker Outs

Calculating poker outs helps you understand your chances of improving a hand. An ‘out’ is any card that could enhance your current hand. For example, with two hearts in your hand and two on the flop, you have nine potential outs to complete a flush.

In the table below, you will find some common draw scenarios that show the number of outs you have and the specific cards you will need to hit your draw:

Draw	Hand	Flop	Specific Outs
Pocket Pair to Set	4♠4❤️	6♣7♦️T♠	4♦️4♣
One Overcard	A♠4❤️	6❤️2♦️J♣	A♦️A❤️A♣
Inside Straight	6♣7♦️	5♠9❤️A♦️	8♣8♦️8❤️8♠
Two Pair to Full House	A♦️J❤️	5♠A♠J♦️	A❤️A♣J♠J♣
One Pair to Two Pair or Set	J♣Q♦️	J♦️3♣4♠	J❤️J♠Q♠Q♦️Q♣
No Pair to Pair	3♦️6♣	8❤️J♦️A♣	3♣3♠3❤️6❤️6♠6♦️
Two Overcards to Over Pair	A♣K♦️	3♦️2❤️8❤️	A❤️A♠A♦️K❤️K♣K♠
Set to Full House or Quads	5❤️5♦️	5♣Q❤️2♠	5♠Q♠Q♦️Q♣2❤️2♦️♣
Open Straight	9❤️T♣	3♣8♦️J❤️	Any 7, Any Q
Flush	A❤️K❤️	3❤️5♠7❤️	Any❤️(2❤️to Q❤️)
Inside Straight or Two Overcards	A❤️K♣	Q♠J♣6♦️	Any Ten,A♠A♦️A♣K♠K❤️K♦️
Flush & Inside Straight	K♣J♣	A♣2♣T❤️	Any Q, Any ♣
Flush & Open Straight	J❤️T❤️	9♣Q❤️3❤️	Any ❤️ 8♦️8♠8♣K♦️K♠K♣

IMPORTANT ‘OUTS’ TERMS

Backdoor: A straight or flush draw where you need two cards to help your hand out.
You have [A K]. Flop shows [T 2 5]. You need both a [J] and [Q] for a straight.

Overcard Draw: When you have a card above the flop.
You have [A 3]. Flop shows [K 5 2]. You need an [A] overcard to make top pair. 3 total outs.

Inside Straight Draw (aka ‘Gutshot’): When you have one way to complete a straight.
You have [J T]. Flop shows [A K 5]. You need a [Q] to complete your straight. 4 total outs.

Open Straight Draw: When you have two ways to complete a straight.
You have [5 6]. Flop shows [7 8 A]. You need a [4] or [9] to complete your straight. 8 total outs.

Flush Draw: Having two cards to a suit with two suits already on the flop.
You have [A♥ K♥]. Flop shows [7♥ 8♥ J♣]. You need any heart to make a flush. 9 total outs.

POKER OUTS SCENARIOS

So, now that we can determine the probability of any card coming on the flop, turn, or river, how can we use that information? Well, knowing this math is particularly useful when working out your likelihood of making a draw.

Suppose you have a hand like a flush draw or a straight draw. In that case, you can work out how many cards will give you the best hand and calculate the odds of any of those cards appearing.

When I’m playing in my regular poker games, I frequently use these calculations to get a better understanding of my odds of making my hand. Let’s take a look at two recent scenarios where this happened.

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Calculating Poker Odds and Hand Odds

To calculate your hand odds, you first need to know how many outs your hand has. An out is defined as a card in the deck that helps you make your hand. If you hold [A♠ K♠] and there are two spades on the flop, there are 9 more spades in the deck (since there are 13 cards of each suit). This means you have 9 outs to complete your flush – but not necessarily the best hand! Usually, you want your outs to count toward a nut (best hand) draw, but this is not always possible.

The quick amongst you might be wondering “But what if someone else is holding a spade, doesn’t that decrease my number of outs?”. The answer is yes (and no!). If you know for sure that someone else is holding a spade, then you will have to count that against your total number of outs.

However, in most situations you do not know what your opponents hold, so you can only calculate odds with the knowledge that is available to you. That knowledge is your pocket cards and the cards on the table. So, in essence, you are doing the calculations as if you were the only person at the table – in that case, there are 9 spades left in the deck.

Dont Overcount Your Odds

Counting your odds seems easy, but beginners often make the mistake of overcounting their odds in situations where they have multiple draws. It’s easy to think you have 9 outs for a flush draw and 4 for a straight and therefore you have 13 outs, but two of those outs are the same card, meaning you really only have 12 outs.

Let’s look at a couple of examples of situations where players may overcount their odds and how it can be avoided.

Example 1

You hold [J♦ T♦] and the board shows [8♦ Q♦ K♠]. A Nine or Ace gives you a straight (8 outs), while any diamond gives you the flush (9 outs). However, there is an [A♦] and a [9♦], so you don’t want to count these twice toward your straight draw and flush draw. The true number of outs is actually 15 (8 outs + 9 outs – 2 outs) instead of 17 (8 outs + 9 outs).

In addition, sometimes an out for you isn’t really a true out. For example, let’s say you’re chasing an open-ended straight draw with two of one suit on the table. In this situation, you would typically have eight total outs to hit your straight, but two of those outs will result in three-to-a-suit on the table. This makes a possible flush for your opponents. As a result, you only have six outs for a nut straight draw. Another more complex situation follows:

Example 2

You hold [J♠ 8♣]o (off-suit, or not of the same suit) and the flop comes [9♠ T♥ J♣] rainbow (all of different suits). To make a straight, you need a [Q] or [7] to drop, giving you four outs each or a total of eight outs. But, you have to look at what will happen if a [Q♥] drops, because the board will then show [9♠ T♥ J♣ Q♥]. This means that anyone holding a [K] will have made a King-high straight, while you hold the second-best Queen-high straight.

So, the only card that can really help you is the [7], which gives you four outs, or the equivalent of a gut-shot draw. While it’s true that someone might not be holding the [K] (especially in a short or heads-up game), in a big game, it’s a very scary position to be in.

Poker Odds Chart

We’ are going to look at an aspect of poker odds called “pot odds,” which helps you decide whether or not a call is profitable. Pot odds are used in conjunction with other poker math like equity and hand odds.

Outs	One Card %	Two Card %	One Card Odds	Two Card Odds	Draw Type
1	2%	4%	46	23	Backdoor Straight or Flush (Requires two cards)
2	4%	8%	22	12	Pocket Pair to Set
3	7%	13%	14	7	One Overcard
4	9%	17%	10	5	Inside Straight / Two Pair to Full House
5	11%	20%	8	4	One Pair to Two Pair or Set
6	13%	24%	6.7	3.2	No Pair to Pair / Two Overcards
7	15%	28%	5.6	2.6	Set to Full House or Quads
8	17%	32%	4.7	2.2	Open Straight
9	19%	35%	4.1	1.9	Flush
10	22%	38%	3.6	1.6	Inside Straight & Two Overcards
11	24%	42%	3.2	1.4	Open Straight & One Overcard
12	26%	45%	2.8	1.2	Flush & Inside Straight / Flush & One Overcard
13	28%	48%	2.5	1.1
14	30%	51%	2.3	0.95
15	33%	54%	2.1	0.85	Flush & Open Straight / Flush & Two Overcards
16	34%	57%	1.9	0.75
17	37%	60%	1.7	0.66

EXAMPLES OF CORRECT AND INCORRECT POT ODDS

When calculating your pot odds, it’s important to remember that not every situation will be profitable. Sometimes you won’t have the odds to call, and you should throw your hand away. You must calculate your pot odds every time you’re faced with a new decision, as your odds can change across multiple streets; it’s common for a profitable flop situation to turn into an unprofitable turn situation.

Profitable Pot Odds

In our first example, we’re on the flop with 4♥3♥ and a board of 2♣5♠9♦. Our opponent bets $20 into a $30 pot. Do we have the right odds to call? Let’s take a look.

First, we need to figure out our pot odds. We’re calling $7 into a $30 pot, so let’s see how that looks in our equation:

Pot odds = ($7 / ($7 + $37)) x 100

Pot odds = ($7 / $44) x 100

Pot odds = 0.159 x 100 = 15.9%

So we know we need to win at least 15.9% of the time to break even with our call. Now we need to figure out the likelihood of making our hand by the turn. We have eight outs with our open-ended straight draw, meaning we’ll make our hand on the turn 16% of the time, making this a profitable call.

However, if we think our opponent won’t bet the turn very often, we could have a profitable call, as we’re 32% to make our hand by the river. In spots like these, you need to make a judgment call about what your opponent is likely to do on future streets. Consider your opponent’s playing/betting style, likely hand strength, and stack size.

Unprofitable Pot Odds

Following on from our previous example, we made the call and the turn brought the J♥ – we missed our straight. Our opponent bets again, this time betting $44 into a $44 pot. As we’re facing a new bet, we need to recalculate our pot odds to see if this call is profitable.

To do this, we follow the same process as before; starting by calculating our pot odds. We’re calling a $44 bet into a $44 pot, so let’s look at our equation.

Pot odds = ($44 / ($44 + $88)) x 100

Pot odds = ($44 / $132) x 100

Pot odds = 0.333 x 100 = 33.3%

This means that we need to win the hand 33.3% of the time for our call to be profitable. We know from our previous example that the chances of us making our straight on the next card is 16%, so we do not have a profitable call.

Examples like this are why we need to calculate our odds on every street. Profitable situations quickly become unprofitable, and if you don’t recalculate your odds when facing a new bet, you’ll make a lot of unprofitable calls.

Pot Odds Application

Once you’ve calculated your pot odds, you should be left with a percentage. This percentage is your breakeven point. You need to win the hand more often than this percentage to make money; if you don’t, you’ll lose money. Of course, this is just the first step; you need to combine pot odds with other aspects of poker strategy to decide whether or not your call is profitable.

Some hands are easy to figure out. For example, if you have a drawing hand, you know your odds of winning, so you can compare those to the pot odds to see if you have a profitable call. Similarly, if you have a very strong hand, you know your chances of winning are extremely high; therefore, you have the odds to call.

However, things get trickier when you have a marginal hand, such as second pair. In these situations, you need to analyze your opponent’s likely range of hands, work out how much equity you have against that range, and compare that to the pot odds you’re getting. This complicated process is more art than science, as you’ll never know exactly what hands will be in your opponent’s range!

A term you’ll hear a lot when talking about poker odds and expected value is “equity.” Let’s take a closer look at what that is.

What is Equity?

Equity is your share of the pot based on your chances of winning the hand. If you have 20% equity, you expect to win 20% of the time. Calculating equity can be done in three ways: hand vs. hand, hand vs. range, and range vs. range. Since you never know an opponent’s exact hand, most players calculate hand vs. range equity by comparing their hand to all the hands in an opponent’s potential range.

For a quick estimation, compare your hand against likely hands in your opponent’s range and average them. This approach is commonly used in live games to get a general sense of equity without extensive calculations.

How to Calculate Your EV

Expected Value (EV) helps you gauge the profitability of a decision by estimating the average outcome over many repetitions. The formula is:

EV = (Win % * $ Won) – (Lose % * $ Lost)

If the result is positive, the call is profitable; if negative, it’s unprofitable.

Example Calculation

Suppose you have a flush draw on the turn, and your opponent bets $10 into a $50 pot. You need 16.66% equity to call. If your chance of making the flush is 18%, calculate EV as follows:

EV = (18% * $60) – (82% * $10)
EV = $10.80 – $8.20 = $2.60

Since your EV is positive, calling is a profitable play.

THE FOUR AND TWO RULE

Calculate the Outs

The “Four and Two” rule, sometimes referred to as the 2/4 rule, is one of the most reliable and easy methods of working out the odds of hitting your desired draw on the turn and river. First, after the dealer has drawn the flop, calculate the number of outs left in the deck.

Multiply Outs by Four and Two

Then, multiply the number of outs by four to get the percentage chances of you being dealt a winning card on the turn. After the turn, you can multiply the number of outs by two to give you your percentage odds.

For example, if there are 8 outs, then the percentage of you drawing one is 8×4 – 32%. Then multiply the number of outs by two to give you your odds. So if there are still 8 outs, your odds are 16%.

Calculate the Ratio Odds

Now that you have the odds, you can work out the ratio odds. This is done by dividing the 100 by the percentage and subtracting 1. For example, 100/32 = around 3, so -1, and you have odds of 2/1.

Putting It All Together

We’ve covered a lot of topics, so let’s put it all together with a real example. In a live $1/$2 cash game, I held Th9h on a board reading J❤️6♣3❤️K♠. The pot was $100, and my opponent shoved for $75. Here’s how I calculated my odds and EV to decide whether to call.

Step 1: Calculate Outs and Probability: I had 12 outs (9 for a flush and 3 for a straight), giving me a 24% chance of improving by the river (12 outs × 2).

Step 2: Calculate Pot Odds: I needed to call $75 to win a total pot of $175, so my pot odds were 42% (75 / 175).

Step 3: Calculate Expected Value (EV): With only a 24% chance to improve, my call wouldn’t be profitable since I needed at least 42% equity. Running the EV:

EV = ($175 * 0.24) – ($75 * 0.76)
EV = $42 – $57 = -$17

The negative EV (-$17) showed that calling would lose money over time, so I folded.

Conclusion

Understanding poker odds is essential to becoming a skilled player. From calculating outs to assessing pot odds, applying these concepts will improve your decision-making. Test your skills with our poker odds calculator, where real-life scenarios will help you sharpen your calculations and confidently apply odds in your game.

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Jordan conroy

Author

Jordan Conroy, a respected name in the online poker arena, has cultivated his authority through years of dedicated play and content creation. Since 2020, he has earned a stellar reputation for his in-depth analysis of poker theory and his ability to keep a finger on the pulse of the latest developments in the poker world.

Jordan’s dedication to staying at the forefront of poker knowledge allows him to consistently deliver top-quality content that resonates with both novice players and seasoned professionals.

Beyond his poker expertise, he brings a diverse perspective, closely following other competitive domains like soccer, snooker, and Formula 1, enriching his insights and providing a comprehensive understanding of the gaming landscape.

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Poker Odds FAQs

Poker Odds & Probabilities

Poker Rules & Terminology

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Poker Odds & Probabilities

How do you calculate pot odds in poker?

How often does a flush draw hit?

Is a flush or a straight more likely?

Is it easier to hit a straight or a flush?

How do you calculate pot odds in poker?

To calculate your pot odds, simply divide the amount you have to call by the total size of the pot (current pot + opponent’s bet + your call). For example, if you have to call $100 and the total pot is $400 ($200 current pot + $100 opponent bet + $100 call), you divide 100 by 400, which gives you 0.25, or 25%.

How often does a flush draw hit?

If you have a flush draw on the flop, you have two attempts to hit nine outs, which means that you’re going to hit your flush around a third of the time by the river. However, if you have a flush draw on the turn, you only have one card to improve, so you’ll only make your flush around 18% of the time.

Is a flush or a straight more likely?

Flushes are rarer than straights in poker, but if you have a flush draw, you are more likely to make it. This is because a flush draw has nine outs, whereas a straight draw only has eight or four outs.

Is it easier to hit a straight or a flush?

While flushes are rarer than straights, it’s easier to hit a flush draw than a straight draw. This is because a flush draw has nine outs, whereas a straight draw only has eight or four outs.

Poker Rules & Terminology

What’s the 2/4 Rule in poker?

The 2/4 Rule in poker is a way of easily calculating the odds of you making the best hand. If you want to calculate your odds across one street, simply multiply the number of outs you have by two, and if you want to calculate your odds across two streets, simply multiply the number of outs you have by four.